Foreign Office Cautioned Regarding Military Action to Overthrow Zimbabwe's Leader

Recently released papers reveal that the Foreign Office cautioned against British military action to remove the then Zimbabwean president, the long-serving leader, in 2004, advising it was not considered a "viable option".

Government Documents Show Deliberations on Addressing a "Remarkably Robust" Leader

Policy papers from Tony Blair's government show officials considered options on how best to handle the "remarkably robust" 80-year-old leader, who declined to leave office as the country descended into violence and economic chaos.

Faced with Mugabe's Zanu-PF party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK joined a US-led coalition to oust Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, Downing Street asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to develop potential options.

Isolation Strategy Considered Not Working

Diplomats concluded that the UK's policy of isolating Mugabe and building an international agreement for change was failing, having not managed to secure support from key African nations, notably the then South African president, Thabo Mbeki.

Options outlined in the files included:

• "Attempt to remove Mugabe by force";
• "Implement tougher UK measures" such as seizing finances and closing the UK embassy; or
• "Re-engage", the option advocated by the then departing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"We know from conflicts abroad that altering a government and/or its bad policies is almost impossible from the outside."

The diplomatic assessment dismissed military action as not a "realistic option," and warned that "The only nation for leading such a military operation is the UK. No other country (even the US) would be prepared to do so".

Cautionary Notes of Heavy Casualties and Jurisdictional Barriers

It warned that military intervention would result in heavy casualties and have "considerable implications" for British people in Zimbabwe.

"Barring a major humanitarian and political disaster – resulting in widespread bloodshed, large-scale refugee flows, and instability in the region – we assess that no African state would support any efforts to remove Mugabe forcibly."

The paper continues: "We also believe that any other European, Commonwealth or western partner (including the US) would sanction or participate in military intervention. And there would be no jurisdictional basis for doing so, without an authorising Security Council Resolution, which we would fail to obtain."

Long-Term Strategy Recommended

The Prime Minister's advisor, a senior official, advised Blair that Zimbabwe "will be a significant obstacle" to his plan to use the UK's leadership of the G8 to make 2005 "a pivotal year for Africa". Lee concluded that as military action had been ruled out, "it is likely necessary that we must play the longer game" and re-open talks with Mugabe.

Blair appeared to agree, writing: "We should work out a way of revealing the lies and malpractice of Mugabe and Zanu-PF ahead of this election and then subsequently, we could attempt to restart dialogue on the basis of a clear understanding."

The then outgoing ambassador, in his valedictory telegram, had advocated critical re-engagement with Mugabe, though he recognized the Prime Minister "would likely be appalled given all that Mugabe has said and done".

The Zimbabwean leader was finally deposed in a military takeover in 2017, at the age of 93. Previous claims that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressure the South African president into joining a military coalition to depose Mugabe were vehemently rejected by the former UK premier.