How Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in Gaza But Faces Challenges With Putin Over Ukraine
Reports of an upcoming American-Russian presidential meeting have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.
Just days after Donald Trump announced he planned to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been put off without a new date.
A preliminary get-together by the both countries' leading diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump told the press at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I'll see what transpires."
- Donald Trump states he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after plan for Putin talks postponed
- Letdown in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky departs White House without results
The frequently changing summit is just the latest development in the president's efforts to mediate an conclusion to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a topic of renewed focus for the US president after he arranged a truce and prisoner exchange agreement in Gaza.
During a speech in Egypt recently to commemorate that truce deal, the president addressed Steve Witkoff, with a new request.
"We have to get Russia done," he declared.
However, the circumstances that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for the negotiation team may be challenging to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for almost several years.
Reduced Influence
Per the lead negotiator, the crucial element to unlocking a agreement was the Israeli government's decision to strike representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a move that infuriated America's Arab allies but provided the president leverage to pressure Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president gained from a long record of siding with Israel since his initial presidency, encompassing his decision to relocate the US embassy to the contested city, to change America's position on the legality of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, more recently, his support for Israeli defense operations against Iran.
The American leader, in fact, is better regarded among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a position that provided him with unique influence over the Israeli leader.
Combine the president's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to secure an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, the president has significantly reduced leverage. Over the past nine months, he has swung between attempts to strong-arm the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
Trump has threatened to impose additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that doing so could harm the world's financial stability and intensify the conflict.
At the same time, the president has publicly berated Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off information exchange with the country and suspending arms shipments to the nation - only to then retreat in the face of concerned European allies who warn a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the whole area.
The president loves to tout his ability to meet and hammer out agreements, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to move the war any closer to a resolution.
Putin may in fact be exploiting the US leader's wish for a settlement – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a means of influencing him.
During the summer, Putin agreed to a high-level meeting in the US state just as it seemed probable that the president would sign off on congressional sanctions package supported by GOP senators. That legislation was afterwards delayed.
Recently, as news emerged that the White House was considering seriously sending long-range missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the president of Russia phoned the US president who then touted the possible meeting in Budapest.
The next day, the president welcomed Ukraine's leader at the White House, but departed empty-handed after a allegedly strained discussion.
The US leader maintained that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"You know, I have been manipulated all my life by skilled operators, and I came out really well," he said.
However the president of Ukraine subsequently commented on the sequence of events.
"Once the issue of long-range mobility became a little further away for us – for Ukraine – Russia almost automatically became less interested in diplomacy," he said.
So, in a short period, Trump has bounced from considering the idea of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to planning a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and confidentially pressuring Zelensky to cede the entire Donbas region – even land Russian forces has been failed to capture.
He has ultimately decided on calling for a truce along present frontlines – something Russia has rejected.
During his election campaign previously, the candidate vowed that he could end the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has subsequently discarded that commitment, saying that ending the hostilities is proving more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his authority – and the challenge of establishing a peace plan when neither side desires, or can afford to, give up the fight.